Benchmarks & Markets
Deutsche Numis Indices Annual Review, 2024
Scott Evans of SEAL Advisors and Professor Paul Marsh of London Business School provide an in-depth analysis of the UK equity market in the 38th Annual Review of the Deutsche Numis Indices. The analysis covers a period of 69 years and looks at both long-run and short-run trends across the entire UK equity market. An extract of the Review is provided here. For the full review please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org or your contact at Deutsche Numis.
The Scotsie 100: 60 Years of Scottish Stocks
Professor Paul Marsh of London Business School and Scott Evans of SEAL Advisors provide a analysis of the performance of Scottish companies in the 60 years prior to the Scottish referendum in September 2014. The research provides some unique insights into the contribution Scottish companies have made as listed companies on the London Stock Exchange. In the event of second Scottish referendum this research provides very useful background analysis.
The Alternative Investment Market: Successes, Failures and Suggestions for Change
Scott Evans of Walbrook Economics and SEAL Advisors provides an in-depth analysis of the performance of the UK’s Alternative Investment Market (AIM). The report focuses on the successes and failures of AIM and provides a number of suggestions for change to improve the longer term functioning of this important mark. Originally published in 2013, the findings and suggestions are as relevant today as they were over ten years ago.
Environmental, Social & Governance (ESG)
ESG & Investment: A Primer
Alex Popplewell and Scott Evans of SEAL Advisors provide a summary of the background, history and development of the relationship between ESG and institutional investment. The research covers each of the individual elements of E, S and G separately and summarises the main developments that have taken place over the past 50 years. The analysis also addresses the issue of whether ESG integration into investment has had a positive or negative impact on returns.
ESG: The Investor Perspective - A Practical Guide
Alex Popplewell and Scott Evans of SEAL Advisors teamed up with leading law firm Gowling WLG to produce a practical guide to ESG from an investor perspective. It is a three part guide covering the following topics:
- What are investors looking for when it comes to ESG?
- A meaningful approach to disclosure
- ESG in the future - what will be important to investors?
The report is free to download by registering at Gowling WLG’s website or contacting us at email@example.com
Litigation & Litigation Finance
Third-Party Litigation Funding: How big is this market anyway?
Scott Evans and Matt Fletcher of SEAL Advisors undertake an in-depth analysis of the global third-party litigation funding (TPLF) market. Using data from a variety of sources, the authors estimate that in 2020 the global market for third-party funding of litigation cases was in the region of $2.4 to $3.0 billion. They found this represented less than 2% of the total litigation market and conclude that TPLF had considerable growth for future growth.
Third-Party Litigation Funding: Frequently asked questions
Scott Evans and Matt Fletcher of SEAL Advisors provide a comprehensive review of the global third-party litigation funding (TPLF). Their analysis covers everything from the history of TPLF, its use in different regions of the world to regulation, rules around disclosure to a description of the main market participants and case characteristics. For anybody looking at the third-party litigation funding for the first time, this research is a must read.
Litigation & its impact on company value
Scott Evans of SEAL Advisors teamed up with leading law firm Gowling WLG to undertake an in-depth analysis looking at the relationship between litigation and company valuation. The research focuses on AIM listed companies and covers 14 years of disclosed litigation events between 2008 and 2022. This unique research provides great insights into how litigation can impact a company’s share price over both the short and long-term. A summary of the work can be viewed on Gowling WLG’s website. For the full report contact us as SEAL advisors at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Commodities & Real Assets
A Primer on Copper: De-carbonisation and the demand for copper
The demand for copper has traditionally been linked to industrialisation and a gauge of the economic health of the global economy. Copper is now central to the global pursuit of de-carbonisation and tackling climate change. This analysis looks at the longer term demand for copper given the impact of the demand from electric vehicles and charging infrastructure. SEAL forecasts that demand could be over c.3,000 kts by 2030 which is over 15% of total mine supply.
The Shadow Price of Gold (revisited)
This analysis provides an update to our previous research on gold which relates the US monetary base to gold reserves to derive an implied price of gold. The updated estimates imply a shadow price of $12,620 and $3,155 assuming 100% and 25% monetary backing respectively. Using the shadow price methodology in conjunction with the historic gold-silver price ratio we calculate a shadow price of silver to be $220 at 100% monetary backing and $55 at 25% backing.
Asset Correlation and Real Asset Investment
The correlation of asset returns is of fundamental importance when it comes to investing in “real” assets. This analysis takes a deep-dive into the correlation of financial and real assets and shows that over time correlations have varied greatly across assets classes. A number of real asset classes display a significantly lower level of correlation with financial assets such as equities and bonds and provide a high level diversification.
The Shadow Price of Gold
For non-cash generating assets such as gold, traditional valuation models have little to offer when estimating fair values. SEAL’s analysis uses a shadow price methodology which relates the monetary base to gold reserves to derive an implied or shadow price of gold. Using data on the US monetary base and gold reserves, and assuming 100% backing of the monetary base we derive a shadow price of gold of $14,119 per troy ounce.